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If in doubt, leave it out. There’s been lots of euphoria this week. But even with a clutch of new record highs, there was lashings of doubt. There still is. European shares have faded earlier gains
There is still no phase-one trade deal.The White House was “very optimistic” that a deal will be reached soon. Yet Reuters reported “fierce internal opposition” to the notion of a tariff rollback. And WH trade advisor Peter Navarro noted that there was “no agreement at this time to remove any of the existing tariffs as a condition of the phase one deal”
Earlier, China’s exports and imports fell; quite hard. (But they were better than expected, underpinning risk appetite, initially)
German trade data looked better. A 1.5% rise compared with +0.4% expected was the best in about two years. The picture might well have changed materially since the snapshot was taken, in September. German manufacturers signalled a continuing recession in this week’s October PMI. September trade data just allow the possibility that a full-blown recession has been avoided, for now
The DAX was down 0.1% by mid-session. Trade-sensitive stock sectors retreated across Europe. DXY ticked up; haven characteristics haven’t strayed far. (Gold also perked up). SPX was flat, NDX down 0.2%. Bunds were fairly rangebound. Treasurys too, though 2-5-year yields were up 2bps each. Brent crude futures stayed down about 1.5%
Stocks/sectors on the move
Europe’s energy and banking sectors fell the hardest at latest check. That makes some sense looking at oil and given that financials’ short-term beta also appeared to be relatively high, of late, with markets’ sensitivity to trade headlines enhanced. ‘Safer’ utilities rose most
An unusually large block (10 million) of Inditex (ITX) shares—60% of the 20-day average—helped skew Europe’s retail/consumer discretionary gauges. This follows a similar-sized ITX oddity on Thursday, amid little news. ITX was last down 2.3%; up 27% in 2019
Richemont was a heavier ‘discretionary’ drag, down 5.6%. H1 results missed, with some pressure from the cost of higher online volumes. News that it won’t counter LVMH’s Tiffany bidding is also taken badly. Credit Agricole fell 2% with French retail banking a particularly soft spot. Allianz added financials weight, down 2.5%. Its key insurance unit combined ratio weakened a bit amid “headwinds”; Q3 operating profit was in-line, though guidance was lifted
Among U.S. earnings, Duke Energy hiked its outlook after a strong EPS beat but shares point lower despite a ‘minimally’ dilutive capital raising. Disney rose 6% ahead of full trade on theme park and ‘Lion King’-boosted earnings. Dropbox was up 2.5% on a beat from rising subscriptions. Gap slumped 9% as its CEO exits amid reduced guidance
FX snapshot as of [8/11/2019 2:01 PM]
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FX markets
Currencies in most active retreat vs. greenback included INR after Moody’s outlook downgrade; ZAR remains the weakest EMFX play after its near-Moody’s miss this week
‘Commodity dollars’ AUD, CAD slip as does NOK, with oil, and as LME copper backed off $6,000 on news that imports to China fell 3% in October. NZD leads declines as implied volatility surges ahead of next week’s RBNZ decision
The Loon is also weighed to a three-week low after a surprise loss of 1,800 jobs last month
The Aussie also falls because the RBA clarified recent preparedness to cut
Upcoming economic highlights
Original from: www.forex.com
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