USD/JPY Resumed Fall from 104.39?

The United States dollar versus the Japanese yen currency pair seems to have changed course towards the south. How much can it stretch?

Long-term perspective
From the 108.16 high, after falsely piercing the intermediate level of 100.05, the price sprang a descending trend, limited by a resistance trendline that starts from the high and continues thru 106.94.
The line had been disregarded twice, at 105.67 and 104.39, respectively. However, both heights ended up being lower highs of false piercings.
The latter piercing, as it is a false one, was expected to resume a determined drop. Instead of such unfolding, the price continued to consolidate just above the intermediate level of 103.74.
This lack of bearish determination would, undoubtedly, make the bulls think that the bears are not yet ready to pull it off and, as a consequence, cause a rally.
For the time being, it seems like it was only a delay, for the price started to move under and depart from the 103.74 level. Nevertheless, the bulls still have a shot, for an inverted head and shoulders might be set into place — head at 102.59, left shoulder at 102.87. The right shoulder is due, with 103.15 or the simple halting of the price before reaching the level being possible rotation areas. If this ends up to be the case, then the price could pierce the double resistance area defined by the 103.75 and the falling trendline. After this, the bulls would eye 105.09.
On the other hand, if this continues to be a fall and if it turns 103.15 to resistance, then the price could extend to the low of 102.59.

Short-term perspective
The rally from the 102.59 low climbed until a hair away from the 104.44 firm resistance area. The retracement from there caused a consolidation phase that rested above the 103.71 level.
Then 103.71 ceded, allowing the fall to print the 103.32 low. As long as 103.71 remains a resistance level, 103.09 is the next bearish objective.
On the flip side, if the bulls do retake 103.71, then they could send the price to 104.44 once more.

Levels to keep an eye on:

D1: 103.15 103.74 105.09 and the low of 102.59
H4: 103.71 103.09 104.44

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Original from: www.earnforex.com